Predictive Model for Sanitation Coverage in Ghana

Why This Project?

Ghana's sanitation challenge requires data-driven solutions, not political promises.

⚠️ The Problem

✗ 1.48 million households in Ghana still practice open defecation
✗ Targets need to be driven by the reality on the ground
✗ Massive regional disparities — OD ranges from 6.2% to 68.5%

✨ Our Solution

✓ Constraint-based model that calculates what's actually achievable
✓ Independent verification — every prediction can be cross-checked against audited data
✓ Transparent parameters — all assumptions visible and adjustable

Understanding Sanitation Levels

We use the WHO/UNICEF JMP "Sanitation Ladder" to classify service levels.

🚫

1. Open Defecation

Disposal in fields, bushes, or open bodies of water. No service.

⚠️

2. Unimproved

Pit latrines without slabs or bucket latrines. Does not separate excreta safely.

🤝

3. Limited

Improved facilities shared between two or more households.

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4. Basic

Private, improved facility not shared with other households.

✅

5. Safely Managed

Excreta safely disposed in situ or transported and treated off-site.

ℹ️ Note: Our current data sets targets for moving populations from Level 1 (OD) to Level 4/5.

The Model

A constraint-based linear model that calculates maximum feasible improvement.

THE CORE FORMULA

Households Served = min( Budget ÷ Cost , Capacity ) × Efficiency

Net Improvement = Served − Pop. Growth

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Budget Constraint

How many toilets can essentially be purchased?

Latrine: $200

Septic: $800

🏗️

Physical Capacity

Construction speed limit regardless of money.

Max Rate: ~8% / yr

Based on historical logistics data.

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Efficiency Loss

The "Last Mile" problem: harder to reach fewer people.

>50% OD: 100% eff.

20-50% OD: 85% eff.

<20% OD: 65% eff.

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Population Drag

New households form while you build.

Growth: −10% to +10%

Reduces net coverage gains.

Ghana Regional Sanitation Map

Hover over regions to see sanitation coverage data

Loading Map Data...

Quick Stats

Worst Affected

Savannah

68.5% Open Defecation

Best Performing

Greater Accra

6.2% Open Defecation

National Average

17.7%

Open Defecation Rate

Priority Regions

6 Regions

Above 40% OD Rate

Regional Data

Complete sanitation statistics from the 2021 Ghana Census

Open Defecation Rate by Region

All 16 Regions

Region	Households	OD Rate	Has Any Facility

Make Your Prediction

Adjust parameters and see how constraints affect outcomes

Interactive Calculator

Input Parameters

Annual Budget: $10.0M

$0$50M

Households: 500,000

10K2M

Current OD Rate: 40%

0%100%

Cost per Toilet: $300

$100$1,500

Population Change: +2.0%

−10%+10%

Model Output

Budget Cap

33,333

Physical Cap

40,000

BINDING CONSTRAINT

Budget

After Efficiency

28,333

Pop. Change Impact

−3,200

NET HOUSEHOLDS SERVED

25,133

OD: 40.0% → 35.0%

5-Year Prediction Model

Verification Framework

Every prediction can be cross-checked from multiple sources

📊

MODEL

Predicts from constraints

~7,200

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REPORTED

District claims

10,000

✅

AUDITED

Field verification

5,500

⚠️

Discrepancy Alert

Reported exceeds Model and Audited figures — investigation triggered for accountability.

Ready to Set Achievable Targets?

Contact us to discuss implementing this model for your sanitation monitoring needs.

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